Study of China One-Child Policy Reveals Complexity, Effectiveness

In what is being called the first systematic examination of China’s fertility policy and practice reveals that, despite government exemptions in rural areas, 63 percent of Chinese couples are strictly limited to one child. Furthermore, the policy has proven remarkably effective, with actual birth rates decreasing nearly to the mandated levels.

The study, which involved researchers in the United States and China, is the first to use data on fertility policy and population growth collected from 420 Chinese prefectures (districts comparable to U.S. counties).

“We want to clear up confusion about the one-child policy,” says Wang Feng, sociology professor at University of California Irvine and a lead author of the study. “Despite what some say, the policy has not been ‘relaxed’ over the years.”

Published in the current issue of the journal Population and Development Review, the study reveals the complexity of the one-child policy. For example, it details the kinds of exceptions within prefectures for couples who give birth to a girl first, and for parents who themselves come from a one-child family.

“The system of exemptions resembles the American tax code in its complexity,” Wang says. “But this does not change the fact that the one-child policy applies without exception to a significant majority of Chinese couples.”

China’s average mandated fertility rate, accounting for the variety of exceptions across the country, is 1.47 children per couple, Wang and his collaborators find, and their analysis of census data shows the actual fertility rate is about 1.5 children per couple.

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