New Analysis Sees Men Failing to Reach Income Levels of Previous Generation

American men have less income than their fathers' generation did at the same age, according to a new analysis released by the Economic Mobility Project, an initiative of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Comprised of a Principals' Group of experts from The American Enterprise Institute, The Brookings Institution, TheHeritage Foundation, and The Urban Institute, the project seeks to investigate the health and status of economic mobility in America.

The new report, Economic Mobility: Is the American Dream Alive and Well?, was co-written by John Morton, managing director of Pew's Economic Policy Initiatives and director of the Economic Mobility Project and Isabel Sawhill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a principal of the Economic Mobility Project. It includes analysis led by a research team at Brookings and outlines what economic mobility is, why it matters in today's economy, and why it is important for policy makers to focus on mobility as part of the ongoing national economic debate.

According to the report, men who were in their thirties in 1974 had median incomes of about $40,000, while men of the same age in 2004 had median incomes of about $35,000 (adjusted for inflation). Thus, as a group, income for this generation of men is, on average, 12 percent lower than those of their fathers' generation. While factors other than cash income also contribute to economic mobility, these data challenge the two-century-old presumption that each successive generation will be better off than the one that came before. The findings rely on new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

In addition to the Principals' Group, the project is also guided by a nonpartisan advisory board of nationally recognized economists, social scientists and policy experts. The initiative was launched in February and comes at a period of intense scrutiny of such issues as executive pay, the minimum wage and the quality of America's public school system -- the latter being of particular concern because education is widely agreed to be a keydriver of mobility.

"The expectation that each generation will do better than their parentshas become a fundamental part of what we call 'The American Dream,' but this new analysis suggests this bedrock belief may be shifting under ourfeet," says Morton. "Income is not the only factor in overall economic mobility, but it is clearly a key component and today's data suggest thatduring a thirty-year period of economic expansion, a rising tide did not lift all boats."

"In modern America, mobility is increasingly a family enterprise," says Sawhill. "While male incomes have decreased from that of the generation that came before, family incomes have risen slightly because more women have gone to work, adding a second earner to the family."

The broader mobility story is complex with data challenges and many important questions left to be answered. Over the next year and a half, the Economic Mobility Project and its partners will research, analyze and present data to the broader public about the status of economic mobility in the United States. Future releases will include: a comprehensive fact book containing key data and trends about mobility, featuring chapters on race, gender, immigration and cross-national comparisons; a report on the leading factors or indicators behind economic mobility; and an analysis of shifting federal investments in education and other policies that may impact mobility.

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Report Finds Severe Pandemic Flu Could Lead to Major U.S. Recession; Biggest Economic Declines Predicted in Nevada, Hawaii

Trust for America's Health (TFAH) has released a new report that finds a severe pandemic flu outbreak could result in the second worst recession in the U.S. since WorldWar II. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could drop over 5.5 percent, leading to an estimated $683 billion loss.

States with high levels of tourism and entertainment could be thehardest hit. Nevada's economy could face the biggest percent decline with aGDP loss of 8.08 percent, followed by Hawaii, which could experience a 6.60 percent loss. Six states could suffer losses over 6 percent (Nevada, Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Louisiana). The economies in anadditional 21 states could drop more than 5.5 percent and every state couldlose more than 5 percent in GDP, the organization says.

States with government and real estate as major industries could suffer the lowest percentage losses. The economies of Virginia and Maryland could experience the lowest drops in GDP of any of the states, but would still face significant declines of 5.13 percent and 5.09 percent, respectively. Washington, D.C. could face a 4.62 percent decline.

"The U.S. is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude,"says Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health."While important government preparedness efforts focusing mainly on medicaland public health strategies are underway, efforts to prepare for the possible economic ramifications have been seriously inadequate. Stepping up pandemic preparedness planning is vital to our national and economic security."

The report was funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts as part of the U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Initiative.

In the report "Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Economic Recession," TFAH created a model to assess the potential losses each state could face during a severe pandemic. Based on estimates from financial andeconomic experts, TFAH examined the impact of a pandemic on 20 different industries, trade, and worker productivity.

The model examines an outbreak as severe as the 1918 pandemic, which inmodern terms could result in nearly 90 million Americans becoming sick and 2.2 million deaths. People who become ill are expected to take at least three weeks to recover, and others would miss significant time from work to take care of family members or stay home out of fear of potential exposure to the flu.

Additionally, the model incorporates predictions from experts of howconsumer demand for products and services could drop in a number ofindustries. For instance, according to estimates, tourism, entertainment, and food services could experience an 80 percent decline, while agriculture, construction, retail trade, and finance and insurance could face a 10 percent loss in demand.

The estimates focus on possible losses over the course of a year during a scenario when a vaccine is not widely available. A real pandemic could last up to 18 months with a series of waves that last six to eight weeks each.

TFAH's report recommends a series of measures businesses and community groups can take to help prepare for a possible pandemic, focusing on how to sustain essential operating functions during a major outbreak. The recommendations encourage the private sector and government at all levels to examine and modify family and medical leave policies; expand telecommuting capabilities; assess infection control procedures in the workplace; establish contingency systems to maintain delivery of goods and services during a pandemic event; and update methods for communicating with their workforce.

The full report can be found on TFAH's website.

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