Computer System Consistently Makes Most Accurate NCAA Picks

Sports professionals and fans get pretty emotional about their picks for the NCAA basketball tournament each year, and that emotion often clouds their judgment.

But three engineering professors at the Georgia Institute of Technology have created a computer ranking system, called LRMC, that consistently predicts NCAA basketball rankings more accurately than the AP poll of sportswriters and the ESPN/USA Today poll of coaches, formulas (the Ratings Percentage Index), other computer models (the Massey ratings and the Sagarin ratings), and even the tournament seeds themselves.

After correctly picking all four of this year's finalists, the LRMC method has now identified 30 of the last 36 Final Four participants (83 percent accuracy over the past nine years of NCAA tournaments) as one of the top two teams in their region. Over the same nine-year stretch, the seedings and polls have correctly identified only 23, and the RPI identified 21.

LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain) is a college basketball rankings system designed to use only basic scoreboard data, including which teams played, which team had home court advantage and the margin of victory. It was originally designed by Joel Sokol and Paul Kvam and has been maintained and improved by Sokol and George Nemhauser, all three optimization and statistics professors in the Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Tech.

"As fans, we only get to see most tournament teams two or three times at most during the season, so our gut feelings about a team are really colored by how well or poorly they played the few times we've been watching," says Sokol. "On the other hand, our system objectively measures each team's performance in every game it plays, and mathematically balances
all of those outcomes to determine an overall ranking."

LRMC seems to have a particular knack for predicting good bubble teams and identifying the top teams. In addition to correctly picking the Final Four, LRMC also correctly identified several over-rated and under-rated teams as potential upsets. First-round losers Drake (5-seed, LRMC #30), Vanderbilt (4-seed, LRMC #38), and Connecticut (4-seed, LRMC #26), as well
as second-round loser Georgetown (2-seed, LRMC #12), were all picked by LRMC as significantly over-rated teams.

On the other hand, teams like West Virginia (7-seed, LRMC #17), which defeated second-seeded Duke, and Kansas State (11-seed, LRMC #19), which defeated sixth-seeded USC, were correctly identified by LRMC as under-rated teams that could pull off one or more upsets.

But LRMC isn't perfect -- it picked Clemson as under-rated (upset in the first round) and Davidson wasn't identified as under-rated by any major ranking method, including LRMC.

LRMC differs from other computer rankings systems in two important ways. When determining the value of home court advantage, LRMC considers how much playing at home helps a team win rather than how many points playing on a home court is worth.

Georgia Tech researchers have also been able to show that very close games are often "toss-ups," meaning the better team barely wins more than half the time. So, they determined that winning a close game shouldn't be worth as much as winning easily, and losing a close game shouldn't hurt a team's ranking as much as losing badly. LRMC's ranking methodology takes
this into account.

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The Heat Is On

There is no off season for the Miami Heat. The team's launched a new campaign called "Summer Heat 2007 – There Is No Off-Season."

The Heat have created a special brand to highlight its special off-season activities. The logo will be displayed on the practice shirts the Heat team members wear during their Summer League workouts and will be featured on the media interview press backdrops.

And get ready for a number of important team announcements that will be made this summer, including various player-related decisions. Proving that there truly is "no off-season," the Heat will announce all of this news as it happens.

There's no off season for the team, and there should be no off season for the fans.

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Playgrounds Could Unlock Key to Childhood Obesity, Study Says

A RAND Corporation study says school playgrounds and athletic facilities can be important tools in the fight against childhood obesity, but many are locked and in accessible to children on weekends – especially in poor and minority neighborhoods.

The study is a new analysis of data from a national research study called the Trial of Activity for Adolescent Girls. The data deals with the physical activity of 1,556 girls in the sixth grade in six metropolitan areas: Washington, D.C./Baltimore, Md.; Columbia, S.C.; Minneapolis, Minn.; New Orleans, La.; Tucson, Ariz.; and San Diego, Calif.

Researchers visited all the schools and parks within a half-mile radius of the homes of the girls on Saturdays in the spring of 2003 for the original study. The 407 schools represented 44 percent of potential neighborhood sites for physical activity.

Researchers found that, on average, 66 percent of the schools were unlocked on weekends. But only 57 percent of schools were both unlocked and had accessible facilities for weekend physical activities such as playgrounds, athletic fields, basketball courts and paved playing surfaces.

The percent of unlocked schools with accessible amenities varied across the communities in this way:

• New Orleans – 23 percent (before Hurricane Katrina)
• Tucson – 50 percent
• Washington/Baltimore – 54 percent
• San Diego – 74 percent
• Columbia – 77 percent
• Minneapolis – 93 percent

“Girls who lived near locked schools tended to be heavier, and neighborhoods with locked schools were disproportionately poor and had larger minority populations,” sayas Molly Scott, lead author of the study and research analyst with RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “These neighborhoods, where risk of obesity is high and public parks and playgrounds are often lacking, could benefit from convenient and safe places for physical activity. And making schools accessible doesn't require construction. It's a policy change.”

Although the RAND Health study didn't find a relationship between school accessibility and increased weekend physical activity rates, the number of locked schools was associated with significantly higher body mass index for the girls. Body mass index, or BMI, is a mathematical formula representing weight relative to height that can be used to determine whether a person is overweight or underweight.

The study found differences in BMI and physical activity by the girls' race and socioeconomic status, consistent with the findings of previous studies. Hispanic and African-American girls had 7.2 percent and 7.8 percent higher BMIs respectively than whites, and non-white girls recorded less physical activity than their white counterparts.

“Studies consistently find that people of different races have different BMIs, but the policy implications of that are often unclear,” Scott says. “This study identifies locked schools as great points of policy intervention where gains in the fight against obesity could potentially be made.”

More research is needed, Scott says, noting that the study did not measure whether the girls in the study actually used the school facilities for exercise. The fact that girls with higher BMIs tended to live in areas with locked schools also could signal that the girls live in a more stressful, high-crime area or a neighborhood with less access to stores that sell healthy food.

The study is titled “Weekend Schoolyard Accessibility, Physical Activity, and Obesity: The Trial of Activity in Adolescent Girls (TAAG) Study.” It will appear in the May issue of Preventive Medicine.


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Get Miami Heat Tickets

The NBA has announced Miami Heat Coach Pat Riley has been named Eastern Conference Coach of the Month for March, the 11th time Riley has been so honored -- setting a record. Coach Riley has won this monthly honor twice more than other coaches have.

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