New Method Predicts High LA Fire Danger Starting July 13

Researchers at the University of Utah and elsewhere have developed a new way to predict when vegetation dries to the point it is most vulnerable to large-scale fires in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles. And this year’s forecast says the highest-risk fire period will begin July 13 – weeks earlier than usual.

Despite that, the new study also shows that unlike other areas of the western United States, global warming has not caused any apparent long-term trend toward early fire seasons in the Santa Monicas.

The scientists eventually hope to expand their unique fire-risk forecasting method to all of Southern California and beyond.

“We developed a way to predict when the time of highest fire danger begins in the Santa Monica Mountains, based on the amount of spring precipitation,” says the study’s principal author, Philip Dennison, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Utah. “We estimate that this year, the highest fire danger will begin July 13.”

The study found the amount of March-April-May precipitation can be used to predict the date at which high fire-risk thresholds are reached.

Dennison says he hopes that “in future years this method can be used to better plan for the start of high fire danger. Fire agencies could use this to help them plan where and when to put their people and equipment. Homeowners may find this useful for knowing when fire danger will be high so they can be better prepared to evacuate, clear brush from around their homes and watch for arsonists.”

Study co-author Max Moritz, a wildland fire specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, adds: “Although large fires still may be associated with autumn Santa Ana winds in Southern California, it appears the stage for these events is set much earlier than usual this year. Being prepared early is thus even more important than usual.”

The study will be published later this year in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. Dennison and Moritz conducted it with Robert Taylor, a fire specialist at the National Park Service’s Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area.


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Study Reveals U.S. Firefighters Face Critical Shortages

A recent study fromthe U.S. Fire Administration, a division of the Department of Homeland Security, reveals that many firehouses across the U.S. lack adequate funding for some of the most essential firefighting tools.

Among the greatest needs are communications equipment, protective gear and training. To call attention to the many ways firefighters contribute to their communities and to help promote awareness of their long list of needs, Circuit City's new firedog services brand recently launched "firedog Across America." The national online essay contest invites Americans to nominate their local firefighters for outstanding service andthe chance to win $550,000 in much needed donations.

"Firefighters risk their lives everyday to protect us. However, as the U.S. Fire Administration study indicates, many firehouses are in seriousneed of additional resources," says Peter Weedfald, senior vicepresident and chief marketing officer, Circuit City Stores, Inc. "Through'firedog Across America,' we hope not only to demonstrate our appreciation for firefighters' dedicated service, but also promote awareness across the country of their equipment and training needs."

The 2006 U.S. Fire Administration study -- "Four Years Later -- A Second Needs Assessment of the U.S. Fire Service" -- was co-authored by theNational Fire Protection Agency. Based on responses from more than 15,000 firehouses nationwide, the results indicate a serious need in the areas of equipment and training.

Findings indicate that an estimated:

-- 65 percent of fire departments do not have enough portable radios to equip all emergency responders on a shift.

-- 60 percent of fire departments do not have enough self-contained breathing apparatus to equip all firefighters on a shift.

-- 66 percent of departments have at least some personal protective clothing that is at least 10 years old.

-- 14 percent of departments protecting communities with populations less than 2,500 have no ladder/aerial apparatus but have at least one building four stories high or higher in the community.

-- 36 percent of fire departments deliver emergency medical services (EMS), but have not provided formal EMS training to all involved personnel.

-- 63 percent of fire departments involved in wildland firefighting have not provided formal training in those duties to all involved personnel.

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