Pilot Error Declines as Factor in Airline Mishaps

The number of airline mishaps attributed to pilot error significantly declined between 1983 and 2002, according to an analysis conducted by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. While the overall rate of airline mishaps remained stable during that time, the proportion of mishaps involving pilot error decreased 40 percent.

The rate of mishaps related to a pilot’s poor decision-making declined 71 percent. The researchers attribute the decline to better training and improvements in technology that aid pilot decision-making. The findings are published in Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine.

“A 40 percent decline in pilot error-related mishaps is very impressive. Pilot error has long been considered the most prominent contributor to aviation crashes,” says the study’s lead author, Susan Baker, a professor with the Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy and the Bloomberg School’s Department of Health Policy and Management.

The study examined 558 airline mishaps between 1983 and 2002. Baker and her colleagues also looked at the circumstances of pilot error, which they characterized as carelessness on the part of the pilot and crew, flawed decision-making, mishandling of the aircraft or poor crew interaction.

Other key findings of the study included:

• Mishaps related to bad weather—the most common decision-making error—dropped 76 percent.
• Mishaps caused by mishandling wind or runway conditions declined 78 percent.
  Mishaps caused by poor crew interaction declined 68 percent.
• Pilot error was most common during taxiing, takeoff, final approach and landing of the aircraft.
• The mishap rate increased the most when aircraft were being pushed back from the gate or standing still, but pilot error was least common in such mishaps.
• Mishaps during takeoff declined 70 percent.
• While the overall rate of pilot error mishaps declined, the reductions were offset by increases in mishaps that did not involve error by pilots; some involved errors by air traffic control or ground crews. The researchers also noted that there is a need to improve safety during the times when the aircraft is motionless on the ground or being pushed back from the gate. The study found that mishaps during these times more than doubled from a rate of 2.5 to 6 mishaps per 10 million flights.

“Trends indicate that great progress has been made to improve the decision-making of pilots and coordination between the aircraft’s crew members. However, the improvements have not led to an overall decline in mishaps. The increase in mishaps while aircraft are not moving may require special attention,” says Baker.

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Researchers Team with Airline to Pinpoint Turbulence in Clouds;

A new turbulence detection system now being tested is alerting pilots to patches of rough air as they fly through clouds. The system, designed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and tested by United Airlines on commercial flights, is designed to better protect passengers from injuries caused by turbulence while reducing flight delays and lowering aviation costs.

The new system uses a mathematical method developed by NCAR scientists, known as the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm, or NTDA, to analyze data obtained from the National Weather Service's network of Next-Generation (NEXRAD) Doppler radars. The resulting real-time snapshot of turbulence can be transmitted to pilots in the cockpit and made available to airline meteorologists and dispatchers via a Web-based display.

The research is funded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in partnership with the National Science Foundation, NCAR's primary sponsor.

"Pinpointing turbulence in clouds and thunderstorms is a major scientific challenge," says NCAR scientist John Williams. "Our goal is to use these radar measurements to create a three-dimensional mosaic showing turbulence across the country that can help pilots avoid hazardous areas, or at least give them enough warning to turn on the 'fasten seat belt' sign."

The NTDA is being tested until October by a group of United Airlines pilots who fly routes east of the Rockies. The pilots, who receive information in their cockpits about turbulence detected ahead, report that the system provides them with accurate information about turbulence that is not available from any other source.

"The messages I've received in the cockpit gave a very accurate picture of turbulence location and intensity," says Captain Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines. "The depiction of turbulence intensity provides an unprecedented and extremely valuable new tool for pilot situational awareness."

Depending on the results of this year's tests, the next step may be to expand the system to additional United aircraft or other airlines. Williams anticipates that, by 2011, the NTDA will provide input to a system over the contiguous United States that will update comprehensive turbulence "nowcasts" for pilots and air traffic managers every 15 minutes.

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Despite Recent Severe Weather, Travelers Blame Airlines Most for Flight Delays

A majority of air travelers have been delayed within the past three months -- and they are holding the airlines responsible, according to a new survey focused on consumer perceptions of the causes for air travel delays.

The survey was conducted by market research firm TNS and was based on interviews August 16-19 with 2,500 members of the TNS US online panel. Respondents were screened for past month travel and past three-month air travel.

Just this month, a Federal Aviation Administration report named June 2007 one of the worst travel months in U.S. history. At the same time, the Department of Transportation stated that the first half of 2007 was the worst for air travel delays in 13 years, when the department first began keeping statistics. The TNS study reveals that among those who expect to travel over the Labor Day holiday, 30 percent plan to travel by air. Despite the delays, the Air Transport Association expects 15.7 million passengers will fly over the Labor Day Weekend -- a 2.6 percent increase over last year. As the already busy skies become increasingly crowded this
holiday weekend, consumers can only hope that airlines will be prepared to meet the demand.

"What's interesting is that consumers are now blaming the airline itself for their travel delays more often than they blame the obvious culprits -- weather, increased summer air traffic, or both," says Tim Gohmann, senior vice president, Travel & Leisure, TNS North America. "Airlines have the opportunity to address the contributing factors such as overbooking and mechanical failure and win back some of the trust of consumers. Consumers, on the other hand, should approach Labor Day weekend prepared to face the same delays they have experienced throughout the summer."

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FAA Continues To Face Challenges in Air System Reform

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to have hurdles it must overcome to come up with a new-generation air system for U.S. aviation to deal with crowded skies, according to a new government audit.

Congress in 2003 authorized a Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) and requires the office to operate in conjunction with multiple federal agencies, including the departments of Transportation, Commerce, Defense, and Homeland Security; the FAA; NASA; and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

JPDO is responsible for coordinating the related efforts of these partner agencies to plan the transformation to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), a fundamental redesign of the national airspace system. FAA will be largely responsible for implementing the policies and systems necessary for the new system, while safely operating the current air traffic control system.

Among the challenges JPDO faces are institutionalizing the interagency collaboration that is so central to its mission, developing a comprehensive cost estimate, and addressing potential gaps in research and development for NextGen, according to a new report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). GAO is the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress.

"In transitioning to NextGen, FAA faces several challenges. Although FAA has taken several actions to improve its management of current air traffic control modernization efforts, institutionalizing these improvements will require continued strong leadership, particularly since the agency will have lost two of its key agents for change by September 2007," GAO says. "Costs are another challenge facing FAA as it addresses the resource demands that NextGen will likely pose, while continuing to maintain the current air traffic control system. Finally, determining whether it has the technical and contract management expertise necessary to implement NextGen is a challenge for FAA."

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FAA Sees Drop In Number of Air Traffic Controllers

Air traffic controllerstaffing levels have dropped for the third straight year, to a new low of 14,206, according to the most recent Federal Aviation Administration "Administrator's Fact Book."

Despite the FAA's public claims that it hired more controllers than it lost to retirement and other factors over the past year, the agency's own fact book reports that the overall total number of controllers working inits 300-plus facilities dropped from 14,227 at the end of fiscal year 2005 to 14,206 in fiscal year 2006, according to the air traffic controllers' union.

The figures are listed as being current asof Oct. 31, 2006, taking into account hiring and attrition statistics a full month into the current fiscal year.

Controller staffing totals reached as high as 15,386 as recently as September 2003. But a year later, in October 2004, the FAA reported that total had fallen to 14,736 as the long-expected controller retirement wave began to increase in size. The total fell again, to 14,227, a year later, the FAA reported.

"This is the most definitive proof yet, from the FAA's own reported figures, that the agency simply cannot get ahead of the retirement wave, no matter how many people they say they are hiring and trying to rush into thesystem," National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Patrick Forrey says. "The agency is now rapidly losing its most veteran,experienced controllers -- the people who it was counting on to train its new generation of controllers -- at a far higher rate than it expected and is continuing to force more veterans to retire early with its demoralizing, distracting and authoritarian imposed work rules."

Veteran controllers are currently retiring at a rate of more than three per day since the start of the current fiscal year: Oct. 1, 2006. This follows a 2006 fiscal year in which 734 controllers retired, eclipsing the FAA's projection to Congress by 57 percent. At the current pace, the number of fiscal year 2007 retirements will clear the FAA's projection of 643 by Memorial Day at the latest; a full four months before the end of the fiscal year. Overall, the FAA has missed its retirement projections for three straight fiscal years, by an increasing margin each year, the union says.

Controllers can retire before the mandatory age of 56 if they have metone of two criteria: Reach age 50 and have 20 years of service; or have 25 years of service at any age.

"Rather than 'staffing to traffic' as the FAA states publicly is its new mission, the agency appears to be following a new policy; 'staffing tobudget,'" Forrey says. "And the scary part is no amount of new hires the agency has made over the past two years or will make over the next 2-4 years is going to fix the current staffing problem. That's because it takes 2-4 years to train a new controller before that professional is fully certified.

"That gap, from the day a veteran controller retires to the day their replacement reaches full certification level, is where we have the most reason to worry about the agency's continued ability to maintain the margin of safety in the system by ensuring there is redundancy," he adds. "Our greatest challenge today, besides the distraction of the imposed work rules, ismaintaining the margin of safety knowing the level of redundancy has been whittled away to its bare minimum. We need more eyes watching the skies."

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