Scientists See First Signs of Long-Term Changes in Tropical Rainfall

NASA scientists have detected the first signs that tropical rainfall is on the rise, using the
longest and most complete data record available.

The international scientific community assembled a 27-year global record of rainfall from satellite and ground-based instruments. The researchers found the rainiest years between 1979 and 2005 occurred primarily after 2001. The wettest year was 2005, followed by 2004, 2003,
2002 and 1998. The study appeared in the August 1 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate. The rainfall increase was concentrated over tropical oceans, with a slight decline over land.

"When we look at the whole planet over almost three decades, the total amount of rain falling has changed very little. But in the tropics, where nearly two-thirds of all rain falls, there has been an increase of 5 percent," says lead author Guojun Gu, a research scientist at NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Climate scientists predict that a warming trend in Earth's atmosphere and surface temperatures would produce an accelerated recycling of water between land, sea and air. Warmer temperatures increase the evaporation of water from the ocean and land and allow air to hold more moisture. Eventually, clouds form that produce rain and snow.

"A warming climate is the most plausible cause of this observed trend in tropical rainfall," says co-author Robert Adler, senior scientist at Goddard's Laboratory for Atmospheres. Adler and Gu are now working on a detailed study of the relationship between surface temperatures and rainfall patterns to investigate the possible link further.

Obtaining a global view of our planet's rainfall patterns is a challenge. Only since the satellite era have regular estimates of rainfall over oceans been available to supplement the long-term, but land-limited record from rain gauges. Recently, the many different land- and space-based
data have been merged into a global record: the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, organized under the World Climate Research Program.

Using this global record, the scientists identified a small upward trend in overall tropical rainfall since 1979. To assess whether this pattern was a long-term trend rather than natural year-to-year variability, they removed the effects of the two natural phenomena that change rainfall:
the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and large volcanic eruptions.

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Atlantic Ecosystems Experiencing Large Climate-Related Changes

Ecosystems along the continental shelf waters of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean--from the Labrador Sea south of Greenland all the way to North Carolina--are experiencing large, rapid changes, report oceanographers funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the Feb. 23, 2007, issue of the journal Science.

While some scientists have pointed to the decline of cod from overfishing as the main reason for the shifting ecosystems, the paper emphasizes that climate change is also playing a big role.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that Northwest Atlantic ecosystems are being affected by climate forcing from the bottom up and overfishing from the top down," says Charles Greene, an oceanographer at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y, and lead author of the Science paper. "Predicting the fate of these ecosystems will be one of oceanography's grand challenges for the 21st century."

Most scientists believe humans are warming the planet by burning fossil fuels and changing land surfaces. Early signs of this warming have appeared in the Arctic. Since the late 1980s, scientists have noticed that pulses of fresh water from increased precipitation and melting of ice on land and sea in the Arctic have flowed into the North Atlantic Ocean and made the water less salty.

At the same time, climate-driven shifts in Arctic wind patterns have redirected ocean currents. The combination of these processes has led to a freshening of the seawater along the North Atlantic shelf.

"Long time-series measurements, as well as research on large-scale ocean processes, are the key to improving our understanding of ecosystem shifts," says Mary Elena-Carr, program director in NSF's biological oceanography program. "This study brings together the important components: the atmosphere, freshwater flow, changes in currents and biological responses, all necessary to predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change."

Under normal conditions in summer months a warmer, less salty layer of water floats on the surface (warmer, less salty water is also less dense and lighter). This surface layer is known as a "mixed" layer, because wind-driven turbulence mixes the water and creates a uniform temperature, salinity and density to depths that can range from 25 to 200 meters.

Similar to the flow of heating and cooling wax in a lava lamp, when the air temperature cools during autumn, temperature and density differences lessen between the surface mixed layer and the cooler, saltier waters below. As the density differences get smaller, mixing between the layers typically increases and the surface mixed layer deepens.

But Greene cites recent scientific studies that reveal the influx of fresh water from Arctic climate change is keeping the mixed layer buoyant, inhibiting its rapid deepening during autumn. A gradual rather than rapid deepening of the mixed layer has impacted the seasonal cycles of phytoplankton (tiny floating plants), zooplankton (tiny animals like copepods) and fish populations that live near the surface.

Normally, when the mixed layer deepens rapidly during autumn, phytoplankton numbers decline because they spend less time near the surface where they are exposed to the light necessary for growth. But with the mixed layer remaining relatively shallow, phytoplankton populations stay abundant throughout the fall. In turn, zooplankton that feed on phytoplankton have increased in number during the fall through the early winter. Herring populations also rose during the 1990s, which some scientists suspect may be because of more abundant zooplankton to feed on.

Greene's paper also cites a link between the collapse of cod fisheries in the early 1990s and an increase in bottom-living species such as snow crabs and shrimp, which cod prey upon. Without cod, other animals that live in the water column and feed on zooplankton, including herring, may have increased.

While the herring story is still unclear, the authors contend that the crash of cod populations does not explain why phytoplankton and zooplankton populations at the base of the food chain have risen during autumn.

"We suggest that, with or without the collapse of cod, a bottom-up, climate-driven regime shift would have taken place in the Northwest Atlantic during the 1990s," Greene says.

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Climate Change Regulation Coming As Business Gets Into the Act

U.S. government regulation on the emissions blamed for climate change may be only a matter of time as industry further gets on the climate change bandwagon.

A Democrat, or Sen. John McCain, a Republican who has moved to deal with climate change issues, may well be president once a new occupant is sworn into the White House. Such a move bolsters chances of further federal regulation of carbon emissions, according to David Sandalow, environment scholar at The Brookings Institution in Washington.

"So one way to think about this is if we have either a Democrat or John McCain as president starting in 2009, we will have a president ready to sign legislation on this issue and I think the odds in Vegas on either a Democrat or John McCain being president are not bad, and I think this is happening," says Sandalow, previously assistant secretary for oceans, environment, and science at the U.S. State Department and senior director for environmental affairs at the National Security Council.

Carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is thought to be affecting Earth's climate in an increasingly severe way.

Controlling emissions and dealing with climate change is increasingly becoming a public policy issue. U.S. industry once resisted carbon regulation but a growing number of companies are addressing climate change.

Sandalow cites industrial titan General Electric and retail giant Wal-Mart as two examples of firms taking on climate change.

"General Electric, which I believe is the largest company in the world in terms of market capitalization, has announced major initiatives in this area," Sandalow says. "Jeffrey Immelt, the CEO, sees his company making lots of money by the move toward clean energy over the course of the next several decades."

Wal-Mart is taking very aggressive steps to save energy and cut costs, he adds.

"As a result of doing that, they have had Al Gore down in Arkansas to talk to all of the Wal-Mart employees around the country," Sandalow says. "So I think this is happening and I believe federal legislation is coming, a lot of the business community knows this, and the only question is how and when."

Former vice president Gore has long been a champion of dealing with climate change and recently raised the profile of climate change further with his documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth.

Meanwhile, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) Chairman and CEO Jim Owens joined a diverse group of businesses and environmental organizations to call on U.S. policymakers to establish a mandatory emissions reduction program to address climate change. Along with Caterpillar, members of the alliance -- known as the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP) -- include market leaders Alcoa, BP America, Duke Energy, DuPont, General Electric, PG&E, PNM Resources and four leading non-governmental organizations - Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council, Pew Center on Global Climate Change and World Resources Institute.

At a news conference Monday at the National Press Club in Washington, USCAP released a set of principles and recommendations as the basis to develop a market-driven policy framework on climate change.

"Caterpillar believes in the need for a market-based approach to the aggressive development of current and future clean technologies that reduce emissions and sustain the environment," Owens says. "As a global manufacturer, we're committed to being part of the process of finding policy solutions that meet the needs of our customers, including those currently involved in energy production. Achieving energy independence for our country will require innovation that leads to new energy sources but also new technologies to improve the use of existing abundant resources such as coal."

With 2005 sales and revenues of $36.34 billion, Caterpillar is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines.

"Clean coal, clean diesel and combined heat and power applications are just a few examples of critical technologies that must be a part of any climate change policy. These technologies, coupled with incentives for the development of new, breakthrough approaches will yield increased sustainability and economic opportunity," Owens adds.

Caterpillar supports a U. S. federal-level approach that is well integrated into a harmonized global system of greenhouse gas reduction initiatives, in particular one that avoids local or regional development of separate paths -- requiring separate technology -- in achieving emissions targets. Proposed solutions also must factor in the broad economic impact as well as the impact on existing energy sectors.

"Reducing greenhouse gas emissions can -- and should -- provide more economic opportunities than risks for industry and the economy," says Owens. "The goals of reduced emissions and economic growth are not mutually exclusive. As the world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment and a technology leader, one of the reasons that Caterpillar is pleased to have a seat at this table is to focus on market-based solutions to issues that impact manufacturers and key customer groups, especially coal."


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Evangelical, Scientific Leaders Join Up to Protect Life on Earth

In a first-of-its-kind collaboration, evangelical and scientific leaders announced today a joint effort to protect the environment. Speaking at a news conference inWashington, DC, a dozen leaders of the coalition shared concerns about "human-caused threats to creation" -- including climate change, habitat destruction, pollution, species extinction, the spread of human infectious diseases, and other dangers to the well-being of societies.

The coalition released an "Urgent Call to Action" statement signed by28 evangelical and scientific leaders. The statement -- sent to President Bush, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, bipartisan congressional leaders, and national evangelical and scientific organizations -- urges "fundamental change in values, lifestyles, and public policies required to address these worsening problems before it is too late. Business as usual cannot continue yet one more day."

The group pledged to "work together toward a responsible care for Creation and call with one voice" to the religious, scientific, business, political and educational arenas to join them in this historic initiative.

"There is no such thing as a Republican or Democrat, a liberal or conservative, a religious or secular environment. We all breathe the same air and drink the same water. Scientists and evangelicals share a deep moral commitment to preserve this precious gift we have all been given," says Dr. Eric Chivian, Nobel laureate and director of the Center for Healthand the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School.

"Great scientists are people of imagination. So are people of great faith. We dare to imagine a world in which science and religion cooperate, minimizing our differences about how Creation got started, to work together to reverse its degradation. We will not allow it to be progressively destroyed by human folly," adds Rev. Richard Cizik, vice president for governmental affairs of the National Association of Evangelicals.

Stressing that their effort is just beginning, coalition members spoke about some of the immediate next steps they will be taking, including holding meetings with congressional leaders from both parties to inform them of this unprecedented effort and encourage their attention to environmental issues. They also plan to hold a Summit on the Creation and will develop outreach tools, such as a Creation Care Bible study guide and environmental curricula.

"If current deterioration of the environment by human activity continues unabated, best estimates are that half of Earth's surviving species of plants and animals will be extinguished or critically endangered by the end of the century. The price for future generations will be paid ineconomic opportunity, environmental security, and spiritual fulfillment. The saving of the living environment is therefore an issue appropriatelyaddressed jointly by science and religion," said Pulitzer Prize-winning author Edward Wilson.

One of the imperatives of the group will be to advance the dialogue and influence policy in regards to global warming.

"In order to avoid clear and substantial dangers...it will be necessary to substantially reduce CO2 emissions during the next few decades, and perhaps by 80 percent or morebefore the end of the century," says James Hansen, a leading U.S. climate change scientist.


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'Doomsday Clock' Moves 2 Minutes Closer to Midnight

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) is moving the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock two minutes closer to midnight. It is now five minutes to midnight. Reflecting global failures to solve the problems posed by nuclear weapons and the climate crisis, the decision by the BAS Board of Directors was made in consultation with the bulletin's Board of Sponsors, which includes 18 Nobel Laureates.

BAS announced the clock change at a joint news conference held at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, DC, and the Royal Society in London. In a statement supporting the decision to move the hand of the Doomsday Clock, the BAS board focused on two major sources of catastrophe: the perils of 27,000 nuclear weapons, 2,000 of them ready to launch within minutes; and the destruction of human habitats from climate change. In articles by 14 leading scientists and security experts writing in the January-February issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the potential for catastrophic damage from human-made technologies is explored further.

Created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Doomsday Clock has been adjusted only 17 times prior to today, most recently in February 2002 after the events of 9/11.

By moving the hand of the clock closer to midnight -- the figurative end of civilization -- the BAS Board of Directors is drawing attention tothe increasing dangers from the spread of nuclear weapons in a world ofviolent conflict, and to the catastrophic harm from climate change that is unfolding.

The BAS statement explains: "We stand at the brink of a Second Nuclear Age. Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices. North Korea's recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed emphasis onthe military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately securenuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are symptomatic of a failure tosolve the problems posed by the most destructive technology on Earth."

The BAS statement continues: "The dangers posed by climate change arenearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons. The effects may be lessdramatic in the short term than the destruction that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause irremediable harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival."

The famous Stephen Hawking, a BAS sponsor, professor of mathematics at the University of Cambridge, and a fellow of The Royal Society, said: "As scientists, we understand the dangers of nuclear weapons and their devastating effects, and we are learning how human activities andtechnologies are affecting climate systems in ways that may forever change life on Earth. As citizens of the world, we have a duty to alert the publicto the unnecessary risks that we live with every day, and to the perils weforesee if governments and societies do not take action now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change."

Ambassador Thomas Pickering, a BAS director and co-chair of the International Crisis Group, said: "Although our current situation is dire,we have the means today to successfully address these global problems. Forexample, through vigorous diplomacy and international agencies like the International Atomic Energy Agency, we can negotiate and implement agreements that could protect us all from the most destructive technology on Earth -- nuclear weapons."

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