Weather Service Changes In Trouble, Gov't Investigators Find

A planned new operations prototype for the National Weather Service (NWS) is in trouble, according to a new U.S. government report.

To improve the efficiency of its operations, in November 2006, NWS approved an effort to develop a prototype of an alternative way of operating. Under the prototype, weather forecasting offices would share selected responsibilities.

NWS’s prototype is currently on hold pending a reevaluation of the agency’s approach, according to the recent report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). GAO is the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress.

The agency had just begun the first phase of its three-phased prototype to demonstrate a new concept of operations over a two-year period when, in late March, a top Department of Commerce official suspended the prototype because of concerns about the agency’s approach, GAO says.

In the first phase, NWS established a program manager and began planning for the next two phases. During the remaining phases, NWS planned to have 20 weather forecasting offices share responsibilities in two-office pairs and then in four-office clusters. NWS then planned to decide whether to implement the new concept of operations on a national basis.

"The justification for the prototype was not sufficient," GAO says. "Before the prototype was suspended, the agency had approved moving forward with its prototype without conducting a cost-benefit analysis. NWS estimated that the prototype would cost approximately $9.3 million and would offer qualitative benefits, such as increased efficiency and an improved ability to focus on severe weather events, but did not quantify benefits or the expected return on its investment. If NWS were to proceed with the prototype without a cost-benefit analysis, it would lack assurance that its approach would be a cost-effective investment for the agency."

The National Weather Service provides storm and flood warnings and weather forecasts nationwide using advanced systems and trained specialists located in 122 weather forecast offices throughout the United States.

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NASA Spacecraft Make First 3-D Images of Sun

NASA's twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft have made the first three-dimensional images of the sun. The new view will greatly aidscientists' ability to understand solar physics and thereby improve space weather forecasting.

"The improvement with STEREO's 3D view is like going from a regular X-ray to a 3D CAT scan in the medical field," says Michael Kaiser, STEREO project scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

The STEREO spacecraft were launched October 25, 2006. On January 21 they completed a series of complex maneuvers, including flying by the moon, to position the spacecraft in their mission orbits. The two observatories are now orbiting the sun, one slightly ahead of Earth and one slightlybehind, separating from each other by approximately 45 degrees per year. Just as the slight offset between a person's eyes provides depth perception, the separation of spacecraft allow 3-D images of the sun.

Violent solar weather originates in the sun's atmosphere, or corona, and can disrupt satellites, radio communication, and power grids on Earth. The corona resembles wispy smoke plumes, which flow outward along the sun'stangled magnetic fields. It's difficult for scientists to tell which structures are in front and which are behind.

"In the solar atmosphere, there are no clues to help us judge distance. Everything appears flat in the 2D plane of the sky. Having a stereoperspective just makes it so much easier," says Russell Howard of the Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, the principal investigator for the SECCHI (Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation) suite of telescopes on the spacecraft.

"With STEREO's 3D imagery, we'll be able to discern where matter andenergy flows in the solar atmosphere much more precisely than with the 2D views available before. This will really help us understand the complex physics going on," says Howard.

STEREO's depth perception also will help improve space weather forecasts. Of particular concern is a destructive type of solar eruptioncalled a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). CMEs are eruptions of electrically charged gas, called plasma, from the sun's atmosphere. A CME cloud can contain billions of tons of plasma and move at a million miles per hour.

The CME cloud is laced with magnetic fields, and CMEs directed toward Earth smash into the planet's magnetic field. If the CME magnetic fieldshave the proper orientation, they dump energy and particles into Earth'smagnetic field, causing magnetic storms that can overload power lineequipment and radiation storms that disrupt satellites.

Satellite and utility operators can take precautions to minimize CME damage, but they need an accurate forecast of when the CME will arrive. To do this, forecasters need to know the location of the front of the CME cloud. STEREO will allow scientists to accurately locate the CME cloud front. "Knowing where the front of the CME cloud is will improve estimates of the arrival time from within a day or so to just a few hours," says Howard. "STEREO also will help forecasters estimate how severe the resulting magnetic storm will be."

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