Weather Service Changes In Trouble, Gov't Investigators Find

A planned new operations prototype for the National Weather Service (NWS) is in trouble, according to a new U.S. government report.

To improve the efficiency of its operations, in November 2006, NWS approved an effort to develop a prototype of an alternative way of operating. Under the prototype, weather forecasting offices would share selected responsibilities.

NWS’s prototype is currently on hold pending a reevaluation of the agency’s approach, according to the recent report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). GAO is the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress.

The agency had just begun the first phase of its three-phased prototype to demonstrate a new concept of operations over a two-year period when, in late March, a top Department of Commerce official suspended the prototype because of concerns about the agency’s approach, GAO says.

In the first phase, NWS established a program manager and began planning for the next two phases. During the remaining phases, NWS planned to have 20 weather forecasting offices share responsibilities in two-office pairs and then in four-office clusters. NWS then planned to decide whether to implement the new concept of operations on a national basis.

"The justification for the prototype was not sufficient," GAO says. "Before the prototype was suspended, the agency had approved moving forward with its prototype without conducting a cost-benefit analysis. NWS estimated that the prototype would cost approximately $9.3 million and would offer qualitative benefits, such as increased efficiency and an improved ability to focus on severe weather events, but did not quantify benefits or the expected return on its investment. If NWS were to proceed with the prototype without a cost-benefit analysis, it would lack assurance that its approach would be a cost-effective investment for the agency."

The National Weather Service provides storm and flood warnings and weather forecasts nationwide using advanced systems and trained specialists located in 122 weather forecast offices throughout the United States.

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NOAA Provides Critical Lead Time for Southeast Tornadoes

Tornadoes that tore across the Southeast on Thursday struck after significant advance warning from NOAA's National Weather Service, according to the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Preliminary Tornado Warning lead times -- the amount of time between the issuance of a Tornado Warning and the touchdown of a tornado -- ranged from 12 to 55 minutes, providing critical time for the emergency message to sound NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio and television, and tornado sirens, the agency says.

For Enterprise, Ala., the preliminary tornado lead time is 18 minutes, NOAA says.

New storm-based warnings, introduced operationally by NOAA's National Weather Service last month, helped to better pinpoint the path ofyesterday's tornadoes resulting in extended lead times and a reduction inthe area warned, as compared to the previous county-based warning method. The tornado warning that included Enterprise, Ala., included a 71% reduction in areas that did not need the warning.

Starting today teams of National Weather Service meteorologists will beon the ground conducting damage surveys in order to determine the exactwind speed, width and path of each twister.

NOAA is not forecasting another severe weather outbreak in the coming days, but encourages residents across the country to purchase a NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards receiver at electronic retailers or online as an essential method of receiving potentially life-saving severe weather warnings.

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